CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-04-23T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30250/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.0 flare from Active Region 13654 (S06E41) starting around 2024-04-23T08:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A small EUV wave is visible moving NE from the source, and post-eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2024-04-23T10:30Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an initial jump in solar wind speed from around 300->370 km/s alongside a jump in temperature, and a slow rise in Btotal and density starting around 2024-04-26T01:08Z, reaching a total of around 9.7 nT. Bz is predominantly southward reaching around -9nT. In the bulk speed and proton density the shock is well defined.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T00:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-26T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30263/1 Model Inputs: 2024-04-23T09:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=484.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-23T15:46Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-26T22:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-30T00:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-26T22:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240423_154600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gifLead Time: 30.32 hour(s)
Difference: -21.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-04-24T17:58Z
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